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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|